We publish concise notes on fast-moving developments and longer whitepapers on structural themes. The objective is clarity and actionability.
We outline a four-quadrant framework based on growth and inflation impulses, with transition probabilities estimated from high-frequency indicators. The note details how exposures update as posterior beliefs change.
We discuss Brier decomposition, reliability diagrams, and decision thresholds for position entry/exit. The focus is on consistency over single-point outcomes.
We analyze how funding dynamics and balance sheet constraints shape term structure. The paper includes case studies in USD and EUR curves.
We present a risk-aware approach to carrying volatility across maturities and underlyings, with explicit rules for de-risking into skew or regime shifts.